Offense

Word on the computer is that the axe won’t fall on Lovie Smith at the 2 p.m. press conference at Halas Hall today. I mean, one of these days his incredible arrogance and treatment of the fans and media as complete imbeciles that deserve nothing but his snide contempt will come back to bite him firmly in the fleshy bits, but all signs point to “not today.”

Damn.

I mean, I don’t think firing him and bringing in Cowher or Gruden or any other studio-analyst coach will make the Bears any better, I just want to see Lovie get a much-needed smackdown for being such a mixture of vinegar and water. I love it when arrogant coaches get the axe. Schadenfreude rules.

But someone’s gotta go. That’s just good business sense. You can replace some of the players, but canning a coach just makes better economical sense. So let’s run down some of the key position coaches, see what they’ve done to deserve to stay, what they’ve done to be shown the door and a final verdict. (We’ll take head coach as read, since it’s pretty firmly reported that he’s sticking around.)

COORDINATOR Jump to defense

Who: Ron Turner

Should I stay…: It’s sad to say, but since the last flake of confetti fell at the Superdome on January 26, 1986, his offenses have been the most productive on the most consistent basis for the Bears. That, of course, is not saying anything in the vicinity of much at all. But the Bears’ three playoff victories since Da Coach hung ‘em up all came with Turner running the offense. Four of the Bears’ top 10 seasons in passing yards and passing touchdowns, including the single-season records for both, were under Ron Turner’s guidance. What’s more, those came from four different quarterbacks in varying ranges of suck (chronologically: Erik Kramer, Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler a.k.a. The Concussion, The Sex Cannon, The Neckbeard and The Incredible Sulk). In the running game, the only running back not named Walter to crack the top 10 in Bears rushing performances was Thomas Jones running in Turner’s offense in 2005. For the love of Jordan, he managed to coach Rex Grossman to throw more touchdowns than interceptions for an entire season. That’s a miracle in itself.

…or should I go? Seriously, shouldn’t the number of times the bubble screen failed be reason enough? Mostly it’s his tendency to have a gameplan that appears to be working, and then changing it simply for the sake of changing it that drives me bonkers. Against the Rams this season, the Bears scored a touchdown from the shadow of their own goalpost with the strategy of “huck it up because the Rams have no secondary.” That drive seemed to be the last time in that game the Bears threw a deep pass. Subbing in Garrett Wolfe and then running him up the middle against the Williams Wall back in 2007. The fullback dive on 4th and 1. Twice. The bubble screen. Calling a 7-step drop for Rex Grossman on 2nd and 1 on a rainy night in Miami when he said for two weeks his goal was to move the chains, then saying afterward, “I figured, what’s the worst that could happen? It’s 3rd and 1.” Waiting until the Bears were out of the playoffs to run designed rollouts on a regular basis for Jay Cutler. Never, ever calling an end-of-the-half Hail Mary when the only thing it would hurt is a quarterback’s stats. That damn bubble screen.

The verdict: He’s gotta go, fair or not. I don’t know that Mike Martz is necessarily the answer (Hey! Let’s pass it every down ever!) but while Turner’s offenses have shown productivity, that’s about where their ceiling is. On top of which, it makes the most sense as a PR move. Fans want a pound of flesh, it costs too much to give them Lovie, so let’s give them the guy Bears fans always love to hate, the offensive coordinator. Plus, he should be used to being fired as the Bears’ OC before the coach is. It’s happened to him already.

QUARTERBACKS COACH

Who: Pep Hamilton

Should I stay…: Seemed to do a good job helping Kyle Orton develop from 2005 Kyle to 2008 Kyle. Called the plays — or possibly didn’t — on Brian Griese’s comeback drive against Philadelphia in 2007. Apparently convinced Jay Cutler that interceptions were bad somewhere between Weeks 15 and 16.

…or should I go? 2007 was an absolute debacle and it was pretty clear from the way Orton played in the final three games of the season that he would have been just as good as — if not better than — Brian Griese. The final decisions for personnel rest, of course, on the brass above him, but his voice is supposedly heard in player evaluation. Jay Cutler threw 26 interceptions this season, six more than Grossman threw in 2006. And every Bears fan knows that Grossman’s 20 picks were the greatest atrocity committed by humankind.

The verdict: Should probably go. Quarterback play since Hamilton took over for Wade Wilson in 2007 has been unspectacular, and if Jay Cutler enjoys working with Hamilton, he certainly didn’t play like it.

RUNNING BACKS COACH

Who: Tim Spencer

Should I stay…: Running backs have enjoyed only-Walter-was-better levels of success with Spencer as the coach. Thomas Jones, once considered a first-round bust, was the Bears’ best offensive player in 2005 and 2006. Matt Forte burst out of the gate as a rookie, and despite sophomore struggles in the running game, did not fall off as a receiver. Running backs have fumbled a combined 18 times in six seasons with Spencer as coach. For contrast, Adrian Peterson has fumbled 20 times in his three-year career.

…or should I go? Forte’s drop-off and the Cedric Benson failure are the only significant problems that jump to mind. But the two can be explained by Sophomore Slump and Ced Being Ced, respectively.

The verdict: Unless he feels some special loyalty to Turner, he should stay.

TIGHT ENDS COACH

Who: Rob Boras

Should I stay…: Greg Olsen had more receiving touchdowns this season (8) than any Bears player since Marty Booker in 2001. Desmond Clark has played solidly for the past six seasons under Boras and John Gilmore and Gabe Reid were solid role players on the 2006 Super Bowl squad.

…or should I go? We were promised a lot more than we got out of the Cutler-to-Olsen combo (plus, where are the threesomes?). On a larger scale, Olsen has been slower to develop than Bears fans would have liked. The way he was playing in the final weeks of the season is what was promised at the beginning of 2007, let alone this season.

The verdict: Gone. While Clark has been consistent, he was a veteran coming in. Olsen is the guy Boras was supposed to develop and he took too long to do it.

WIDE RECEIVERS COACH

Who: Darryl Drake

Should I stay…: Has consistently turned later-round draft picks into solid NFL receivers. Bernard Berrian developed from a third-rounder to a guy the Bears couldn’t afford to keep, Devin Hester was an immediate scoring threat in his first season of offensive incorporation and has continued to develop and Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu and Earl Bennett have emerged as a solid corps of young receivers.

…or should I go? The blame can fall elsewhere on his two most glaring failures. Mark Bradley was a greater failure of drafting judgment than player development and Muhsin Muhammad was displeased from the day he arrived in Chicago. Some men, you just can’t reach.

The verdict: Stick around. But see if you can get some veteran help.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Who: Harry Hiestand

Should I stay…: The offensive line was good in 2005 and 2006.

…or should I go? When the offensive line was good, it was all veterans who barely needed any coaching. Josh Beekman has been on the team since 2007 and still didn’t beat out Frank Omiyale at the end of the season, and we all know how Omiyale played this season. Difficult to tell whether lack of development of any other young linemen besides Chris Williams is the fault of Hiestand or drafting decisions.

The verdict: He was with Turner at Illinois and came to the Bears when Turner did. If Turner goes, so does Hiestand.

DEFENSE

COORDINATOR

Who: Lovie Smith

Should I stay…: The team played well before Urlacher went down with his injury. Of course, that was all of 3 quarters, but still, the defense lost its best player.

…or should I go? When quarterbacks go down, offenses are supposed to fail. Defenses are supposed to be a little less reliant on one player. Pittsburgh managed to stay above water with Troy Polamalu injured (their problems were more offensive). I’m not saying the Bears shouldn’t have expected some dropoff with the injury to Urlacher, but the drubbings at the hands of Cincinnati and Arizona were scheme failures, not execution failures.

The verdict: It’s hard to imagine a world where Lovie Smith keeps his head coaching job and retains defensive playcalling duties. The Bears’ defense hasn’t been good since 2006, which was the last time they had a defensive coordinator who wasn’t in lockstep with Smith. Creative dissonance is a good thing. Just ask Ditka and Ryan.

DEFENSIVE LINE COACH

Who: Rod Marinelli

Should I stay…: He’s widely respected around the league for his defensive line coaching prowess. Anthony Adams played extremely well this season, and Tommie Harris turned it on in the closing weeks.

…or should I go? He’s only been at it one year, so it’s difficult to tell. With the offensive position coaches, Hamilton is the least-tenured at three seasons. Were the Bears’ struggles due to Harris still recovering from injury, or because Marinelli couldn’t motivate his veteran crew?

The verdict: His reputation warrants keeping him around for another year.

LINEBACKERS

Who: Bob Babich

Should I stay…: If Urlacher hadn’t been injured, there’s no way I’d buy the Pisa Tinoisamoa injury as anything worth mentioning, since the Bears would have then been playing with the same corps as the previous five seasons. But since Urlacher went down, forcing Hunter Hillenmeyer to the middle, thus sticking Nick Roach into the strong-side spot, Babich’s job this season is worth some praise. In addition, when any of Roach, Hillenmeyer or Lance Briggs needed to come out to get looked at during the course of a game, Jamar Williams was inserted seamlessly.

…or should I go? If you’re still harboring residual anger for 2007 and 2008.

The verdict: Keep him. Babich is the recognition and reversal of the Peter Principle. He did a great job with the linebackers in 2004-06, was promoted to defensive coordinator — his level of incompetence — but rather than kept there, was demoted again. Of course, he kept the title and the paycheck, but his responsibilities have been reduced back down to a job he can not only handle, but at which he can excel.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Who: Jon Hoke

Should I stay…: As Dan Pompei pointed out in the Tribune, Zack Bowman went from not being able to guard Calvin Johnson in Week 4 to holding his own in Week 17. The quarterback was different, but still. Bowman also registered the most interceptions by one player (6) since Nathan Vasher in 2005. Charles Tillman continues to do that thing where he tackles guys while taking the ball away from them. Danieal Manning is strong as the nickel back.

…or should I go? Safeties were a mess, partly due to injury. They finally started to play well at the end of the season (again pointed out by Pompei) but even then Craig Steltz managed to break a couple of Charles Tillman’s ribs. Come on, man, that’s your best player. (/realizes it was a fluke)

The verdict: Again, hard to tell if safety mess was his fault or personnel evaluation’s. He’s only been around a year, so what the hell, keep him. Unless the new defensive coordinator wants his own guy.

SPECIAL TEAMS COORDINATOR

Who: Dave Toub

Should I stay…: It really doesn’t seem to matter who the Bears put back for kickoff returns, as long as he has some breakaway speed, the blocking scheme will work out for him. Field goal defense was again good, with missed field goals playing a factor in two early-season victories. Not sure how much he can take credit for Robbie Gould and Brad Maynard, but they remain awesome.

…or should I go? Again according to Pompei, the special teams had the eighth-most penalties in the NFL.

The verdict: Yeah, the only reason he’d leave the Bears is if someone offered him a head coaching position. This guy’s awesome.

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